The Indian middle class, like the rest of the population, is growing exponentially due to constant migration to the cities, which now include more than 20 tier-2 cities. The percentage of the population employed in farming and services in rural areas is declining in line with mechanisation and international trends, while rural prosperity is increasing alongside the growth of GDP.
Easy access to social media, smartphones, streaming, TV and films has significantly increased exposure to the outside world among all sections of the population. It is not surprising that most Indians now view the world as their oyster. Socialism has largely faded away, replaced by a focus on welfare, aspiration, education, greater life expectancy, nutrition, health, higher income and the realisation that India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy, with a GDP exceeding $10 trillion by 2030. Additionally, the country’s road, rail, and air infrastructure is rapidly evolving every day.
The Opposition often laments the unemployment situation and high food prices in the run-up to multiple elections. They do so frequently that one might be forgiven for thinking that things are going very badly indeed, despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to highlight the significant progress made in the last 10 years. This progress is greater by far than ever before. Yet, here we have it, astounding overseas and domestic tourism figures that cannot occur without available funds.
Now, in the second decade of the 21st century, and post-Covid, international travel appears to have surged among Indians. Who can argue that there isn’t enough disposable income among the Indian middle class? A middle class that constitutes nearly a third of the overall population of 1.44 billion. It may be too diverse and opinionated to be a significant force in elections, but even that could change.
Indians account for 10 per cent of all visa applications at present to countries that require them. This is despite a rupee/US dollar exchange rate approaching an astronomical Rs 85 to the dollar.
America, with its B1/B2 visit visas, has a backlog of more than 400 days for Indians. Nevertheless, it still had 5.1 lakh desi visitors in the April-June 2023 quarter. Canada sent 26 million visitors to the US, but they don’t need visas
India’s statistics are just behind the United Kingdom (which doesn’t need US visas either, as they are cousins from across the pond, firm US allies, and former colonial overlords), with 9.7 million visitors.
Mexico, next door, sent 7.2 million. Germany, with 4.7 million, and others from Europe like the French sent fewer tourists to America than the Indians in the April-June 2023 quarter.
Similar things are happening in domestic travel for leisure and pilgrimage with the advent of the Vande Bharat trains, great highways, more airports and airlines and high car ownership. So much so that the airlines have had to lower their domestic fares by up to 30 per cent to compete with the vastly improved trains.
Indians have spent $11.44 billion on overseas travel in the nine-month period of the current fiscal year, from April to December. This does not include shopping, sightseeing, entertainment, hotels, dining and so on once abroad. This figure could easily double when all expenses are totalled. There is no restriction on how much foreign currency Indians can take abroad, provided that if it is more than $10,000 in currency or traveller’s cheques, it must be declared. Additionally, there are credit and forex cards.
It is estimated that the number of Indians travelling abroad for holidays will triple by 2025. This means that about 40 per cent of international travellers will be from India. It’s no wonder that Switzerland recognised that Indian tourists accounted for two or three percentage points of their economy even two decades ago. This is why they have welcome boards out for Indians and many others are following suit.
This trend is further driven by aspirational travel from tier 2 cities and budget carriers. The well-off, a category that is continually expanding, will number more than 100 million people by themselves.
Overall, 10.3 crore (103 million) Indians travelled abroad between 2017 and 2022, with 3.8 crore (38 million) among them seeking to emigrate or acquire permanent residency in foreign countries like the US, Canada and Australia. Who are these people? Most of the 18 million Indian diaspora, the largest in the world, are temporary migrants to West Asia who remit home most of the $100 billion per annum now. Others are students, most of whom do return to India.
In the 19th century, aristocratic Britons in the heyday of the British Empire undertook at least one ‘Grand Tour’ to broaden their perspectives. This journey took them to the ‘Continent’, which, in those horse and carriage days, extended from Paris and Vienna to Switzerland and Germany in the South, lasting about a year. Lingering in warm, artistic and cultured Southern Europe, particularly in Italy and Spain, was particularly popular.
Taking a steamship to America was also attractive to some, travelling on luxurious ocean liners to New York. However, America, beyond its major cities like New York, Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, New Orleans, St Louis and Los Angeles, tended to seem exotic in the 19th century. Travelling over vast expanses on the newly established train lines or by horse-drawn mail carriages, often with armed guards, was a little dangerous. Much of the hinterland, rivers, forests, mountains, wildlife (including bison) and the native Red Indians, remained relatively untamed. The Wild West was not a myth and many witnessed live travelling shows featuring figures like Wild Bill Hickock to form an idea.
Authors, poets, and journalists extolled the virtues of this travel and the destinations for those who could not afford it. Of course, there was no TV or radio, let alone social media. Even photography was relatively new, so people relied on painters and landscape artists.
In the 20th century, with the advent of early air travel in the 1930s, again, it was the rich who could afford to go abroad by the smallish aeroplanes that could carry about 30 passengers. The old Victorian-era seaside resorts within Britain had to suffice for the rest.
It was much the same for Indians. The Maharajahs sailed, some with a year’s supply of Ganga Jal for their drinking and cooking. Others flew when planes became available, making multiple stops to Europe and back. By the latter part of the 20th century, after the two World Wars, passenger ships had largely retreated from the travel map, except for the huge cruise liners and air travel had been democratised.
Cheap tickets and charter aircraft tours had secretaries and office boys jetting off to Spain for two weeks. And, of course, they ventured farther afield to Asia and Africa. But it was still the province of the affluent West in the beginning.
Later, the same packaged tours and individually curated visits, some with Indian vegetarian and Jain cuisine cooks in tow, came to places like India, which were neither rich nor had oil to sell for petrodollars. Nevertheless, the international travel bug had bitten, if not multiple times at first, certainly once in a lifetime. If not Europe and America, then certainly Dubai and Thailand were possible.
In addition, since 2011, more than 1.6 million have become citizens of foreign countries, including 1,83,741 in 2022 alone. In 2021, 1,63,370 Indians renounced their citizenship. Of these, 78,284 became US citizens, followed by Australia with 23,533, Canada with 21,597 and Britain with 14,637. Of course, given our population of 1.4 billion plus, the emigration numbers are very small for us, even as they are significant in the host countries. Many are following their relatives who are already settled abroad. Others are minorities, such as Christians, who feel comfortable emigrating to Christian countries in the First World. Or Jews, the younger of whom emigrate to Israel. The Anglo-Indians have gone. So have the Armenians. Now, even a few of the young Kolkata Chinese. But the largest minority, nearly 200 million Muslims, have largely stayed put. It is therefore ironic that parts of the Western media call the present administration communal and anti-Muslim.