Even as anti-immigration sentiment continues to escalate in Canada, economists have warned the unsustainable numbers of newcomers have led to the country being “caught in a population trap”.
A report released on Monday by National Bank of Canada, authored by economists Stefane Marion and Alexandra Ducharme, stated, “Canada is caught in a population trap that has historically been the preserve of emerging economies. We currently lack the infrastructure and capital stock in this country to adequately absorb current population growth and improve our standard of living.”
The report pointed out the country’s population grew by 1.2 million in 2023, the highest ever annual increase. And the first time since 1949 when the population increased by over 600,000 in a year, back in 1949 when Newfoundland joined the Federation.
Citing Statistics Canada figures, the news outlet Globe and Mail reported that there were approximately 2.5 million temporary residents in Canada, mainly those on study or work permits. The National Bank of Canada report called for much lower numbers, as it noted, “At this point, we believe that our country’s annual total population growth should not exceed 300,000 to 500,000 if we are to escape the population trap.”
Those skyrocketing numbers have caused a backlash against immigration into the country. In a survey released on Saturday for the news outlet CTV, the agency Nanos Research found that 61% of respondents wanted Ottawa to bring in fewer immigrants into the country this year than in 2023. That was an eight per cent increase in those wanting reduced immigration as against September 2023. The proportion who want to accept more immigrants continues to decline (five per cent as against 17% in 2020).
Housing and infrastructure shortfalls cited by close of three-fourths (73.5%) of respondents who wanted immigration levels decreased.
In 2020, 40% wanted fewer immigrants, while 53% wanted the same level of immigration or an increase, which totals just 31% now.
Immigrants from India comprise nearly 30% of newcomers in most categories. In 2022, they comprised 118,224 or nearly 27% of the total 437,539 of permanent residents admitted. The percentage climbs in temporary categories: According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data, till the end of November 2023, Indian nationals accounted for 215,910 out of the total of 579,075, over 37%, of those with study permits. Till October 2023, there were 828,335 temporary work permits issued, with Indians making for 247,495, or about 30%.
In an editorial, the Globe and Mail warned “But the widespread support for immigration underpinning that decades-long success story is showing signs of strain.”
“Ottawa needs to change course, quickly, to safeguard that consensus,” it stated.
The Canadian government has indicated it will cap numbers for international students and temporary workers but has not given a timeline for such action.