The lure of Canada may be fading for many Indians, if a recent report is to be believed. Recent data has shown a substantial drop in Canadian study permit applications processed for Indian students, causing concern in the education sector.

An ApplyBoard report has shown that between July and October 2023, the Canadian government processed nearly 146,000 new study permit applications for Indian nationals. However, during the same period in 2023, the figures dwindled to fewer than 87,000, marking a significant year-over-year decrease of 41%.

This decline translates to a notable reduction of 60,000 student visas processed for Indian students from July to October 2023 compared to the corresponding period last year. The chart below illustrates the monthly processing totals over the past two years, highlighting a particularly significant shortfall from August to October, down by 47% compared to 2022.

The unexpected drop contrasts with the strong interest shown by Indian students in the first six months of the year, where the Canadian government processed 25% more study permit applications than in the same period in 2022.

Growing Negative Sentiment in Indian Media

While diplomatic tensions between India and Canada may seem like an obvious cause for the decline, a Better Dwelling report suggests a different theory. Social media has become a platform for international students to share their hardships in Canada, emphasizing the high cost of living and unfulfilled promises of opportunities.

A sentiment analysis of top-tier Indian media conducted by ApplyBoard supports this theory. Between April and August 2023, articles discussing housing in Canada increased fivefold compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, the percentage of content flagged as negative rose from 12% to 30%, consistently highlighting Indian students’ financial hardships and unemployment challenges.

Cost of Living

In response to the escalating cost of living and inflationary pressures, the Canadian government implemented an Affordability Plan, representing a substantial $12.1 billion CAD investment. Measures include a 50% reduction in childcare fees in Ontario, a 10% increase in the Old Age Security pension for seniors, and indexing various benefits to inflation. Starting January 1st, 2024, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will raise the cost-of-living requirement for study permit applicants to prepare students for the higher cost of living in Canada.

Impact on Actual Student Inflows

Despite the decline in applications processed, study permit approval rates for Indian students have continued to rise. From January to September this year, an additional 32,000 Indian students were approved to study in Canada compared to the previous year. If processing volumes remain near half of 2022 totals, ApplyBoard projects 200,000 to 210,000 Indian students will be approved to study in Canada this year, representing a 5 to 8% increase over 2022.

Impact of the India-Canada Dispute

While the diplomatic dispute between India and Canada may have raised concerns, data suggests that it is unlikely to further depress the volume of study permit applications processed from India. According to IRCC reporting, 80% of study permit applications from Indian students processed between August and November were processed within three weeks, indicating prioritized study permit processing. The impact of the dispute on student demand remains a distinct consideration.

Diverse Student Applicants

A positive aspect amidst the challenges is the sustained interest in Canadian education from students of other nationalities. From July to October 2023, study permits processed for all other countries rose by 34%, and as of December 2023, there is a remarkable 52% rise from the previous year’s total.

This shift has resulted in a more diverse set of applicants to Canadian institutions, with Indian students constituting 36% of study permit applications in 2023, compared to nearly half in the previous year. The evolving landscape emphasizes institutions’ commitment to improving the diversity of their international student inflows.