Living in America is a cherished dream of many individuals across the globe. A Green Card officially known as a Permanent Resident Card allows you to live and work permanently in the United States.

However, getting US permanent citizenship or a green card involves a long-drawn process. Here’s the bad news for those looking to become US citizens after applying for a green card. According to a study report by David J. Bier, Associate Director, Immigration Studies, CATO Institute, only 3 percent of green card applicants waiting for approval will likely receive permanent residence in the United States in 2024.

Compared with a total applicant pool of nearly 35 million, the total caps (plus processing capacity for uncapped categories) amount to just under 1.1 million for FY 2024. In other words, 97 percent of green card applicants who have already applied will not receive green cards this coming year, is what the study found out.

The Green Card Lottery

By far the largest number of applicants appears in this green card category annually, with nearly 22.2 million applicants in 2023 (for the FY 2024 lottery).

Unlike other categories, lottery entrants not selected and approved before the end of the year must reapply the following fiscal year if they want to try again.

The lottery cap for FY 2024 will be about 55,000. The win rate for the lottery has fallen about 80 percent since 1995, when the first lottery was held, to about 0.25 percent—a 1 in 400 chance of receiving a green card.

Employment‐Based Green Cards

The employment‐based green card backlog has grown to 1.8 million as of March 2023—up from about 1.2 million in 2018. The overall cap is set at 140,000 per year plus any unused family‐sponsored green cards.

In FY 2024, about 8 percent of pending employment‐based applications will be approved for a green card. However, most of these green cards will not go to the applicants who have waited the longest. Instead, because of the country caps, applicants who apply over the next year will pass applicants from China and India—many of whom have already waited more than a decade.

Indians—who make up half the applicants in the employer‐sponsored categories—must wait more than a century for a green card.

To address green card backlogs, Bier in his study suggests that Congress should start by waiving the unnecessarily onerous rules and arbitrary caps to approve current green card applicants.

As far as an immigrant comparison with Canada is concerned, the US has still some ground to cover. Here’s how the math works as per the report:

Granting green cards to the 35 million applicants in 2024 and then permanently increasing legal immigration to 5 million annually would likely increase the US immigrant population by only about 40 million by 2033, leading to an immigrant share of 22 percent.

It would take until 2036 for the United States to hit Canada’s current 23 percent. The United States would still be tens of millions of immigrants below what it would take to reach the 28 percent the Canadian government predicts its country will reach by 2036.